Donald Trump announced 50% tariffs on Europe, however, delayed it until July 9, 2025. This move has witnessed a rally in Euro, British pound, Australian dollar, and continued the downtrend of the United States dollar.
Naturally, gold has also strengthened in comparison to the US dollar, and has its short term sights on the $3400 mark, and in the near future, $3500 as well.
This week, the bias is gold is buy, upon retracement to specific levels. Let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this weekly forecast of May 26th to May 30th, 2025.
Previous week’s forecast recap of crypto.news
In the previous week’s forecast we marked two levels on the chart of gold as potential long position targets, which were $3261 and $3328, both of which have been hit successfully.
We also shared a selling level in the 4h timeframe from which price gave 470 pips and then continued its uptrend.
Now let’s start by discussing the key economic events of this week and their possible impact on the price of XAUUSD.
Key economic events of this week
Some significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week that are expected to impact XAUUSD.
Wednesday, May 28: FOMC Meeting Minutes
A stronger USD and higher rates might cause gold to decline if the minutes indicate a hawkish Fed (leaning toward more rate hikes or tight monetary policy). Gold prices would probably be supported by a dovish tone (rate reductions or worries about an economic slowdown).
Thursday, May 29: Unemployment Claims & Prelim GDP Q/Q
- Strong GDP: Indicates a robust economy, which is negative for gold (USD up).
- Weak GDP: Increases recession fears → gold is positive (desire for safe havens).
Unemployment Claims: Higher than anticipated claims point to a poor job market, which is good news for gold. Reduced claims might affect gold prices.
Friday, May 30: Index of Core PCE Prices m/m
The Fed favors this inflation indicator.
PCE higher than anticipated: More Fed tightening = negative outlook for gold.
PCE below expectations: Reduces pressure on rate hikes therefore gold is positive.
Gold HTF Overview
Gold has already swept liquidity below the $3200 level and next targets should be external liquidity which is present at $3435 and $3500 respectively. Invalidation of this trade idea would be the break of $3120 level in the weekly timeframe.
Gold Forecast for May 26th to May 30th
Gold is showing bullish momentum in all lower time frames which makes buying an ideal position to enter and hold.
On the 4 hour timeframe the strongest buying level is coming up at the FVG, VAL, and order block of $3260-3208.
On the 1h timeframe there is an immediate buying opportunity as well from the levels of $3313-3291. This is due to the 0.618 fib level, POC, and FVG, and order block, all aligning at the level mentioned.
Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation
To conclude, the safe strategy in gold is to look for buys in the lower time frame levels and the higher time frame levels as well. Selling is not recommended this week, as the risk to reward ratio may not be favorable for traders.
Support Levels
- $3260-3208 – 4h support, FVG, order block, VAL
- $3313-3291 – 1h bullish order block, FVG, POC, 0.618 Fib level
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