As explained in the previous XAUUSD weekly forecast, gold retraced to major buying levels below $3336 and is now holding above $3350 again, looking to take out $3380, and eventually sustain above $3400 as well.
Summary
- Gold is holding above $3350 after retracing to key buying levels and is aiming for $3380, $3400, and potentially $3440–$3500 (new ATH).
- This week’s FOMC minutes, unemployment claims, PMIs, and Powell’s Jackson Hole speech will drive volatility; dovish signals could push gold higher, while hawkish tones may pressure it.
- Key resistance is at $3420–3440 (4H supply), while strong supports are at $3314–3281 (daily support) and $3334–3326 (15m FVG).
- Short-term setups suggest possible sells at resistance, but overall higher timeframe bias favors buying dips for continuation toward new highs.
The bias in gold for this week is buy with potential targets of $3440 and even a new ATH above $3500!. With that in mind, let’s discuss the key pivot levels for gold buying and selling in this weekly forecast from August 18th to August 22nd, 2025.
Key economic events of this week
Some significant U.S. economic reports are scheduled for release this week that are expected to impact XAUUSD.
Aug 20 – FOMC Meeting Minutes
Gold may experience bearish pressure as hopes for a rate decrease wane if the minutes reveal a hawkish Fed position. Gold would benefit from any dovish indications or growth-related worries.
Aug 21 – Unemployment Claims & PMIs
Increased unemployment claims would indicate a sluggish labor market, which would increase gold prices. Gold is supported by a contractionary manufacturing PMI (below 50), but gold may be weighed down by a strong services PMI that strengthens the USD.
Aug 22 – Powell Speech & Jackson Hole Symposium
The main motivator will be Powell’s tone. While dovish or recession-related comments could lead to a bullish rise, hawkish remarks about maintaining rates higher for longer would put pressure on gold.
Gold HTF Overview
The monthly timeframe is still showing a move upwards towards external liquidity, and that is exactly what’s happening right now.
We can expect the move to continue towards $3440, and eventually towards a test of the previous ATH of $3500 as well.
Gold forecast for August 18th to August 22nd, 2025
In the 4h chart, we can see a supply from $3420-3440, where we can short gold this week if the price decides to pump there.
In the daily timeframe, a major level for buying gold is starting from $3314-3281 due to the daily level support and range low.
In the 15m chart of gold, we have immediate buying levels at $3334-3326 due to the FVG and range low in the 15m timeframe.
Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendation
To conclude, gold can give both buys and sells this week; however, buys are strongly preferred over sells. Lower time frames are suggesting sells, while higher time frames are still favoring a buy position in gold.
Resistance Levels
- $3420-3440 – 4h supply of gold
Support Levels
- $3314-3281 – daily support of gold and range low
- $3334-3326 – 15min FVG and range low
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