The unwinding of the yen carry trade has emerged as a factor affecting global markets, with potential implications for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices, according to analysis from financial commentator Graham Stephan.
Summary
- The unwinding of the yen carry trade, involving borrowing in Japan at low rates and investing in U.S. Treasuries, is creating liquidity pressures in global markets.
- Bitcoin, as a risk asset, is vulnerable to increased volatility during deleveraging events caused by forced selling, as market liquidity tightens.
- The Federal Reserve’s policy shift, including rate cuts and Treasury purchases, could provide long-term support for Bitcoin, despite short-term volatility.
Stephan, a YouTube content creator focused on financial topics, described the yen carry trade as a long-standing investment strategy that has provided liquidity to global markets. The mechanism involves borrowing funds in Japan at low interest rates and investing in higher-yielding assets abroad, primarily U.S. Treasuries.
“For decades, the ‘Yen Carry Trade’ has been the secret engine behind global liquidity,” Stephan stated on X. See below.
He outlined the strategy’s basic structure: investors borrowed money in Japan where interest rates were effectively zero percent, purchased U.S. Treasuries paying 4-5%, and retained the differential without deploying their own capital.
The trade’s viability depends on maintaining favorable interest rate differentials and stable currency exchange rates between the yen and dollar. Current market conditions have begun to compress these margins, according to Stephan.
As Japanese rates rise, that trade flips
Japan has begun raising interest rates to support its currency while the Federal Reserve has initiated rate cuts, narrowing the spread that made the trade profitable. This convergence has prompted investors to liquidate U.S. assets to repay yen-denominated loans, creating outflows from U.S. markets.
“As Japanese rates rise, that trade flips. Investors are now being forced to sell their US assets to pay back their Yen loans,” Stephan explained, characterizing the phenomenon as a liquidity drain.
The analyst noted that Bitcoin, as a risk asset with significant leverage in its ecosystem, tends to reflect changes in market liquidity conditions early. Forced selling pressure can amplify price volatility in cryptocurrency markets during deleveraging events.
In a Substack post, Stephan referenced Federal Reserve policy actions, noting the central bank has cut rates three times in the current year and ended its quantitative tightening program. He stated the Fed announced plans to purchase Treasuries over a 30-day period, signaling a shift in monetary policy direction.
Stephan’s analysis positioned Bitcoin between two competing forces: immediate deleveraging pressure from carry trade unwinding and potential longer-term support from accommodative monetary policy.
Regarding Bitcoin’s price volatility, Stephan cited historical patterns showing the cryptocurrency has experienced drawdowns exceeding 50% but has not fallen below its electrical cost of production—the expense required to mine one coin. He suggested this metric has historically indicated favorable entry points for investors.
Bitcoin prices have experienced increased volatility in recent trading sessions amid broader market turbulence. The cryptocurrency’s sensitivity to liquidity conditions and risk appetite makes it susceptible to rapid price movements during periods of financial market stress.
The yen carry trade has been estimated to involve trillions of dollars in positioning, according to market analysts. Its unwinding represents a significant shift in global capital flows with potential ramifications across asset classes.
