Bitcoin price now resembles early‑2022 sideways market, with rising supply in loss and shrinking long‑term holder profits, Glassnode says.
Summary
- Glassnode’s cost basis model shows Bitcoin price below key 0.75, 0.85 and 0.95 profitability quantiles, putting over 25% of supply at a loss.
- Total Supply in Loss has surged to about 7.1 million BTC on a 7‑day average, matching ranges seen in early 2022’s sideways market.
- Long‑term holder SOPR has dropped to around 1.43 but stays above 1, meaning old coins still sell at profit, though margins are tightening.
On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has identified similarities between current Bitcoin price market conditions and the market structure observed during the first quarter of 2022, according to the company’s latest weekly report.
The analytics firm presented data from its Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, which identifies price levels corresponding to specific degrees of investor profitability. The model tracks three supply quantiles: 0.75, 0.85, and 0.95. When Bitcoin trades at the 0.75 level, 75 percent of the supply remains in profit, while the 0.85 and 0.95 levels correspond to 85 percent and 95 percent profitability, respectively.
Bitcoin has recently fallen below all three quantile levels, indicating that more than 25 percent of the cryptocurrency’s supply is currently held at a loss, according to Glassnode data. The firm noted that this creates a balance between potential capitulation from recent buyers and the possibility of seller exhaustion forming a market bottom. Bitcoin similarly dropped below the 0.75 quantile during the sideways market movement in early 2022, the report stated.
The Total Supply in Loss metric, which measures the amount of Bitcoin (BTC) circulating supply held at a net unrealized loss, provides additional support for the comparison. The 7-day moving average of Bitcoin Total Supply in Loss reached 7.1 million Bitcoin last week, marking the highest level since September 2023, according to Glassnode.
The analytics firm reported that the current scale of supply in loss, ranging between 5 million and 7 million Bitcoin, closely resembles levels observed during the early 2022 sideways market.
The Bitcoin long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) also reflects similar market conditions to the first quarter of 2022, according to the report. This metric measures whether Bitcoin investors holding for more than 155 days are selling their coins at a profit or loss.
The Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR has declined sharply in recent weeks but remains above 1, indicating that long-term holders continue to sell at a net profit, Glassnode reported. The current value of 1.43 represents a notable reduction in profit margins for this investor cohort, the firm stated.
Bitcoin experienced a slight decline over the past 24 hours, according to market data.
