Bitcoin has climbed back above $60,000 after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the direction of future interest rate decisions during an ECB policy discussion.
Summary
- Bitcoin rebounded above $60,000 after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the future path of interest rates.
- CME FedWatch shows markets still expect rates to remain unchanged in July despite lingering inflation concerns.
- Polymarket continues to price in a chance of a 2026 rate hike, while Morgan Stanley expects rates to stay on hold this year.
According to data from crypto.news, Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $60,175 at the time of writing after rebounding about 3% from an intraday low below the key $58,000 level. The move followed comments from Warsh, who again avoided offering forward guidance on monetary policy while reiterating that future decisions will depend on incoming economic data.
Bitcoin rebounds as Warsh avoids policy signals
Speaking during an ECB Forum panel, Warsh declined to say whether the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates at the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Instead, he repeated the position he adopted after taking office that the central bank would not pre-commit to future policy moves and would continue responding to economic data as it becomes available.
His remarks came as traders largely continued to expect no change in interest rates later this month. According to CME FedWatch data, markets currently assign a 70.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at the July FOMC meeting.
Warsh also addressed inflation, saying expectations had declined during the first four weeks of the recent period despite concerns tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict. He added that inflation risks had eased while reaffirming the Federal Reserve’s commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target.
As crypto.news reported after the June FOMC meeting, Warsh also left rates unchanged at that gathering. Bitcoin fell to around $65,430 following the decision, while Ethereum traded near $1,770. The Federal Reserve’s updated projections at the time showed that nine policymakers expected at least one rate increase before the end of the year.
Those projections have continued to shape market expectations even after Warsh reiterated at the ECB Forum that future policy decisions would depend on incoming economic data.
Rate hike expectations continue to pressure crypto
Although traders see little chance of a July rate increase, expectations for additional tightening later this year have not disappeared. According to Polymarket data, there is currently a 54% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of 2026.
Higher borrowing costs have generally remained a headwind for cryptocurrencies because elevated interest rates tend to support demand for cash and short-term fixed-income assets over riskier investments such as Bitcoin.
Separate reporting by crypto.news also noted that Morgan Stanley expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates unchanged through the rest of the year. The bank nevertheless warned that rate hikes could return if inflation remains persistent or if the unemployment rate falls further.
Outside monetary policy, another source of uncertainty for Bitcoin has come from corporate supply. As previously reported by crypto.news, the possibility that Strategy could sell as much as $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin has remained one factor contributing to selling pressure in the market.
Political attention has also stayed on Federal Reserve policy. Before Warsh became chair, President Donald Trump repeatedly called for lower interest rates. After the June decision to keep rates unchanged, however, Trump responded without strong criticism and continued to praise the new Fed chair while receiving no timeline for future rate cuts.
