Ethereum is trading near $1,670 after one of its weakest nine-month periods in recent years.
Summary
- Ethereum remains on track for a third straight double-digit quarterly decline despite accumulation signals.
- Nearly 500,000 ETH left exchanges in one week as investors reduced available selling supply.
- Iran deal hopes and a potential Hormuz reopening could improve sentiment toward crypto assets.
The second-largest cryptocurrency by market value remains under pressure after falling more than 66% from its late-2025 peak near $4,800.
The decline comes even as analysts point to growing signs of accumulation and improving macro conditions. A possible U.S.-Iran peace agreement, which President Donald Trump said could be signed Sunday, has also added a new factor for crypto investors watching risk sentiment. Iran has disputed the Sunday timeline, but negotiations appear to be moving forward.
Ethereum heads toward another weak quarter
Ethereum is on pace for its third consecutive quarter of double-digit losses. Data cited by analyst Daan Crypto Trades shows ETH fell roughly 29% in the first quarter and remains down more than 20% in the second quarter with weeks remaining before the period ends.
The current stretch follows a 28% decline in the fourth quarter of 2025. That means Ethereum could record three straight quarters of losses exceeding 20%, extending one of the longest periods of weakness since the 2022 bear market.
Despite the poor performance, Daan argued that Ethereum still has an important role in tokenization, decentralized finance, and blockchain infrastructure. He said current price levels are becoming attractive for investors with a multi-year time horizon.
“Finally attractive again for longer-term accumulation,” he said, while warning that bear markets often last longer than investors expect.
Exchange outflows point to accumulation
On-chain data has provided one of the strongest bullish arguments for Ethereum in recent weeks. Analyst Ali Martinez said nearly 500,000 ETH worth about $800 million left centralized exchanges over the past seven days.
Large exchange withdrawals are often viewed as a sign that investors intend to hold assets rather than keep them available for immediate sale. Falling exchange balances can reduce short-term selling pressure if demand remains stable.
Martinez described the movement as a potential accumulation signal. However, he also warned that Ethereum could still fall much further before establishing a final market bottom.
His downside scenario suggests ETH could revisit levels near $700 if broader market conditions deteriorate.
Technical indicators remain bearish
Ethereum’s daily chart continues to show a clear downtrend. Since reaching highs near $5,000 late last year, the asset has produced a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
The Relative Strength Index currently sits near 32, close to oversold territory. While that indicates strong selling pressure, it does not confirm a trend reversal. Assets can remain oversold for extended periods during bear markets.
The MACD also remains below the signal line and in negative territory. Although bearish momentum has slowed, a confirmed bullish crossover has not appeared. Trading volume has also failed to produce the type of capitulation spike often seen near major market bottoms.
Iran deal hopes add a macro catalyst
Ethereum’s outlook is also tied to broader market sentiment. Earlier today, crypto.news reported that Trump said a peace agreement with Iran could be signed Sunday and lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has said the agreement may take longer to finalize.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe argued that a successful agreement could send liquidity back toward risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Lower geopolitical tension and reduced pressure on energy markets could improve investor appetite for digital assets.
For Ethereum, that macro backdrop arrives at a time when on-chain data points to accumulation while technical indicators remain weak. The combination leaves ETH caught between growing long-term interest and a market structure that still favors caution.
Whether Ethereum’s recent lows mark the start of a recovery or another stop on the way down may depend on how risk sentiment develops in the coming weeks, along with whether buyers continue removing ETH from exchanges at the current pace.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
